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Usability & InteractionMember ingredient
Optimism Bias
Expecting your own future to turn out better than the available evidence supports.
Public evidence overview
One checked source, with its limits.
This preview is not the complete evidence base. Use it as a question to investigate in your own product, not as a prediction of what an individual will do.
Checked source previewAcademic paper
Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias
Research-assisted source review
- What it supports
- The authors found no remaining evidence of unrealistic comparative optimism in the controlled tests and observed overestimation of some severe outcomes relative to neutral outcomes.
- Where it may not transfer
- The conclusion concerns the prevalent group-comparison method and a proposed motivational explanation. It does not rule out individually verified forecasting errors, and it sits within an active disagreement about measures and mechanisms.
See how sources and limitations are checked in our editorial method.
Member depth
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Practitioner includes the complete checked source set, study context and practical takeaways for this ingredient. The public overview above remains available without upgrading.