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Usability & InteractionMember ingredient
Illusion of Validity (coherent prediction)
A coherent match between a story and a predicted outcome can create confidence that exceeds the prediction’s tested accuracy.
Public evidence overview
One checked source, with its limits.
This preview is not the complete evidence base. Use it as a question to investigate in your own product, not as a prediction of what an individual will do.
Checked source previewAcademic paper
Probabilistic Mental Models: A Brunswikian Theory of Confidence
Research-assisted source review
- What it supports
- Apparent overconfidence and the hard–easy effect depended on task ecology and format and could diminish or reverse, while single-case confidence differed from frequency judgement.
- Where it may not transfer
- General-knowledge tasks do not directly test professional product forecasts. The model explains important boundary conditions but does not remove the need for outcome-based calibration.
See how sources and limitations are checked in our editorial method.
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Practitioner includes the complete checked source set, study context and practical takeaways for this ingredient. The public overview above remains available without upgrading.