Base Rate Fallacy

People disregard statistical information in favour of specific anecdotes or vivid examples, even when the statistics are more reliable.
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Usability and Interaction
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Encourages focus on key metrics rather than misleading exceptions.

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Users may misinterpret data if not contextualised properly.

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Search
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Conversion
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Task Success
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Decision-Making
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Cognitive Load

The Study

Base Rate Fallacy explores how individuals' decisions and perceptions are influenced by underlying psychological mechanisms. Research on this bias has revealed its role in everyday behaviours and decision-making processes. Studies often involve experiments where participants' reactions are observed to determine the bias's impact. This understanding helps designers and marketers craft more effective, user-centric experiences.

The result

The results indicate that base rate fallacy significantly influences decision-making by altering perception, recall, or emotional response. These findings provide valuable insights into cognitive behaviour, informing design strategies.

Actionable tips

1.

Present statistical data clearly for better decisions.

2.

Use relatable examples to illustrate probabilities.

3.

Avoid anecdotal evidence that skews perception.

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