Hot Hand Fallacy

People assume a person or system experiencing success is more likely to continue succeeding, even when outcomes are random.
touch_app
Usability and Interaction
sentiment_very_satisfied

Builds momentum and excitement for continued engagement.

sentiment_sad

May lead to overconfidence in random success patterns.

stadia_controller
Gamification
pages
Landing Pages
arrow_upward_alt
Engagement
arrow_upward_alt
Retention
arrow_upward_alt
Trust & Confidence
arrow_upward_alt
Exploration

The Study

Hot Hand Fallacy explores how individuals' decisions and perceptions are influenced by underlying psychological mechanisms. Research on this bias has revealed its role in everyday behaviours and decision-making processes. Studies often involve experiments where participants' reactions are observed to determine the bias's impact. This understanding helps designers and marketers craft more effective, user-centric experiences.

The result

The results indicate that hot hand fallacy significantly influences decision-making by altering perception, recall, or emotional response. These findings provide valuable insights into cognitive behaviour, informing design strategies.

Actionable tips

1.

Avoid reinforcing streak patterns in decision-making.

2.

Design balanced feedback to counter confirmation.

3.

Test probability framing for rational choices.

Cocktails with this ingredient

There are no cocktails that currently contain this ingredient